How important is the probability theory in sports betting ?

There are a few basic principles regarding probability theory, based on which you can have a better approach to the sports betting rates of success.

#1 Multiple factors.
Most sports betting gamblers believe that the theory of probability in sports betting does not work just because the result of an event is depending too much by human factors (such as injuries). The fact is that the result of a sports match depends on many coincidences only says that we cannot know exactly in advance with higher accuracy the probability of the result. However, this does not prevent the work of the laws of mathematics and probability theory, existing independently of specific events, axiomatically, which is the basis of the bet activities. In mathematics, the probability of an event means the ratio where we compare how many times an event occurs compared to all possible trials.

#2 Dispersion.
An important aspect with the coin, which I quote almost every time there is a dispute on the topic of long profit with an excellent analogy. The probability of one side of a perfect coin falling out is 50% = 0.5 or 1/2, which means that on average each side must drop out of two shots once. But in fact, you can throw a coin ten times, and all ten will drop, for example, tails. This nuance is called variance, and it is he who often misleads many players. In fact, the probability value means the frequency with which this event will occur during an infinite number of attempts. The fewer tests, the more (as a percentage) the actual result may deviate from the expectation. This is the dispersion.

#3 Winning probability.
The phrase “100% sure win” or win-win rates do not exist. The real probability of a sporting event is unknown to anyone. Not even the best bookmaker from the world does not know the coefficient probability in sharp numbers. Simply, we can say that the bookmaker estimates the probability with a number, producing a “coefficient” for this event. After that, the bookmaker estimates the odd with approximately equal to the value of (1/coefficient). In fact, the odds will be lower, because the bookmaker will insert its margins of profit. The coefficient odd of 1.25 roughly reflects the probability of 1 / 1.25 = 80 %. What can be described in words as an event that should occur on average 8 times out of 10. However, we should not forget about dispersion. In the short run, an event with a specified probability can happen 20 times out of 20 (which often enters into the euphoria of inexperienced bettors who have caught such a successful series, which makes them believe that they are experts, and now they will simply smash the bookmakers). But it may not happen two, three or even four times in a row, although the latter will happen quite rarely, and it will still be, from time to time. If we assume that the coefficient of the bookmaker roughly corresponds to the real probability of an event (which, in the aggregate of several bets, will be close to the truth), then the probability of an unsuccessful series of N consecutive lost bets can be calculated using the formula: (1 – 1 / coefficient) to the power N. For five losing in a row of the coefficient odd of 1.25, we get the probability (1 – 1 / 1.25) to the power of 5 = 0.00032 or roundly 1 time out of 3125. However, remember the dispersion, yes? This does not mean that you can safely “slip” 3124 times, and “get” exactly on the 3125th. No, with exactly the same chances such misfortune can happen to you both significantly later than 3125 times, and immediately – on the first attempt, as well as more than once in one of the segments of 3125 trials. And it does not depend on how confident you are on this odd. Another common misconception is that many players believe that after losing one, and even more so several bets in a row, the probability of winning the next bet increases and therefore, they use a kind of progressive betting strategy (martingale).

The probability of winning your bet does not depend on how much time you have lost before. The same thing after you have thrown away several “head” in a row, the probability of throwing away the “tail” in the next throw does not change the ideal coin probability, and the same 50% remains. That is why you do not even try to bother to recoup the bets lost and you should be able to stop in time. There are a lot of stories with bettors who believe that they cannot be so unlucky, and bet more and more, increases the stake in the hope of recover everything that was lost and finally remains bankrupt.

#4 Big numbers.
It is impossible to take a conclusion whether a betting strategy is profitable or not in “long run” after only 10 bets. Due to dispersion, the actual result on the long run can be very different from that shown in the short run. The higher the coefficient – the higher the variance, the more you need to make bets in order to understand where your betting strategy will bring you profit or not. You have to evaluate the profitability and unprofitably of your bets exactly on big numbers of bets (at least few hundreds or thousands) if you seriously want to earn money by betting on sports. Speaking on long-term, you should not judge anyone’s success only after few bets or prognostication tips. “Losing streak” bets is happening to absolutely everyone, and if someone who claims the opposite is a liar. What is a matter on this physiological momentum is the duration or the number of consecutive losses. And it is important that these periods overlap with success. On the other side, there is no reason to overestimate any super-successful periods or the “winning streak”.

Many seller tipsters use this scheme. They create an account, give out a good series of free bet tickets in short run (10+ winning streak in a row, for example) and then bring themselves a naive clientele who eventually buy info. Then they will offer no more free bet prognostication instead of asking for money information with short history proof. Then the failure will come, which the general public will not know and the general performance will be lower. After first losing streak the buyers will lose confidence and buy no more. The seller will create a new fresh new account and this kind of business will go with other buyers. If you want to buy sports tips, search for sellers who have in history at least some hundreds of bets and general profit is positive.

#5 Uncertainty probabilities.
Many people compare the bookmaker with a casino and believe that it is impossible to win. However, there is one significant difference between a sports betting bookmaker and a casino which fundamentally changes things. If in casino games all probabilities are known in advance (pure mathematics), then nobody knows for certain about the probabilities of any real sports events (including bookmakers). There are many when bookmakers give odds higher than 2 for events whose real probability is in the region of 50%. This is what you should search for to bet, because will bring profit in long run betting.

#6 Value bets.
The secret of success in sports betting does not contradict the mathematics or the probability theory and at first, a glance is stated quite simply: all you have to do is to take those bets with odds (which estimates the probability) incorrectly setup by the bookmaker of an event, making it profitable for the bettors. Those bets are often called “value bets”. Accordingly, finding such events and putting them on a regular basis could bring you earnings with significant profit. This sounds easy but is actually really difficult to implement in real life.

#7 Odds in numbers.
In order to understand how to create odds numbers (like bookmakers), it is extremely important to change your principles of thinking in the direction of value betting. Most players are thinking about what kind of bet should wager. For example: “I am sure that FC Barcelona will win against Manchester United, therefore I will bet on it.” As you should already understand, your personal confidence in the victory of FC Barcelona does not give any practical benefit when it comes to choosing the right odds for this event. Instead, you must learn to evaluate how often FC Barcelona (or any other team) will win here, all other things being equal. For example: “I think that FC Barcelona will beat Manchester United in the 8 out of 10 matches with the current players”. Furthermore, you read the odd setup by the bookmaker for this event. The expected frequency of victories for FC Barcelona 8 out of 10 (or an estimate of probability 8/10 = 0.8) corresponds to a break-even ratio of 1.25 (1 / 0.8). That is, if the bookmaker gives 1.30, then it will be a good bet at a distance. However, if you had assumed that FC Barcelona would win against Manchester United in 7 cases out of 10, then the break-even ratio should already be 1.43. It would seem that the difference is only one victory, and the coefficients for profit (that is, for the net profit you received, without taking into account the amount of the bet) differ almost twice! This is how great the influence of the seemingly minimal error of your estimate at low coefficients is. But, perhaps, 7 out of 10 will be too optimistic in reality.

#8 Betting experience.
To summarize, you must understand very well at the same time both mathematics and statistics, and probability theory, and the principles of betting odds, and the sport you want to bet on in order to successfully determine the events in which the bookmaker unreasonably overestimated the coefficient, and this overstatement is enough to place a profit on such events when making a bet on such events. Everything positive will come with betting experience, if there is intellectual potential.