How to Avoid Sports Betting Mistakes and Be a Successful Bettor

Prevent sports betting mistakes
The right betting attitude to prevent betting mistakes

My name is Christian and I am attending sporting events all over the world. I can finance this hobby through sports betting. How did this happen?

1. I am a huge sports fan and also I do a lot of sports myself. I am a qualified tennis and football trainer. I am a ski instructor, I have a low golf knowledge and also I am a marathon finisher. I have been attending sports events all over the world for many years and thus I’ve acquired a good knowledge of sports.

2. I studied sports economics and graduated with a diploma thesis on “Mathematical Computation of Tennis Games.” My model for calculating probabilities developed in that written dissertation provoke a large interest to a US-based major engine, where I went after finishing my studies.

3. Then I combined my interest in sports and mathematics and started to place sports bets. In the beginning, it was just an amateur sports bettor, then someday, I became a professional one. After being asked again and again about my betting formula for success, I launched a website where wrote down my sports betting knowledge.

Since 2011, I would describe myself as a professional sports bettor, as I generate a permanent profit and because I can finance my living through sports betting.

I’m so glad I found you!

Yours sincerely,
Christian

PREFACE
In everyday life at work and also in sports, mistakes occur anytime and in many ways. Basically, that’s perfectly okay, because we are human and not machines, but mistakes handled with sports betting with real finesse. Every mistake costs money here and if you’re making too many mistakes, you could go completely bankrupt.

It is no secret that 95% of sports bettors, make too many mistakes and thus lose more money than win. In average only 5% of sports bettors take their mistakes under control and can show a positive balance. From these five percent, only a fraction managed to make no mistakes at all and make a living from sports betting. This group of bettors is known as sports betting professionals.

Does this mean that a professional sports bettor wins every bet? No, of course not! Nobody in the world can win all his bets, just because that is the nature of sports betting.

How can a professional sports bettor be without mistakes? Quite simple: a lost bet is not automatically considered a mistake. Lost bets are part of sports betting, like a goal made in a football match. The only important question is, whether the lost bet was due to a bad attitude, a lack of expertise, a poor betting system or perhaps a lack of discipline. If so, then it is a serious mistake and the road to becoming a professional sports bettor is still long.

If you also want to be more successful in sports betting, then you should avoid the following common betting mistakes. I’ll show you a number of mistakes that I made myself in the past which I keep noticing with other bettors in these days. Of course, I will also give you a solution suggestion for every mistake.

Reading the following betting mistakes list is the easiest part but putting them into practice is the hardest part of betting. Some of the betting mistakes will seem too banal and simple for and may ignore them. I advise you to take every listed mistake seriously and accept yourself every error you made, although it is difficult to do this is, especially without proper help.

As a sports bettor, you are on your own. You have to decide which game to bet on, which bet offer to take and how high your stake is. If the success fails to materialize, then your betting activity ends up in financial distress. From what I can tell, there could be three reasons for this:

Reason 1
Most people around you are not successful in sports betting and therefore cannot help you.

Reason 2
The few successful bettors around you prefer to keep their knowledge for themselves or are too lazy to write it down their know-how.

Reason 3
The internet is abundant with incomplete and suspicious information.

Many bettors are unsuccessful in my opinion for exactly these reasons. And that’s exactly what I wanted to do with this article. I have written my “betting success formula” on paper and explain it for you in this comprehensive sportsbook guide with complete, clear and serious step by step explanations.

In order to pass on my knowledge in the best possible way, I have divided the guide into two parts:
1. An entire theory of knowledge for having success in sports betting
2. A practice-based knowledge with detail explanations including sports betting tool

Because I use this “formula of success” to avoid many of the below-betting mistakes, you may find this work as a resource for your betting strategy and you will quickly understand what the formula is and why it is so unique.

It’s now time to know the most common mistakes in sports betting. Let’s start!

CONTENTS

01 Betting with no value

02 Betting without knowledge of mathematics

03 Betting with bad reputation sportsbook

04 Betting without money management

05 Not withdrawing profits

06 Betting on impulse

07 Not using a bookkeeping

08 Ignoring betting opportunities

09 Betting multiple bets too often

10 Doubling bet strategy

11 No odds comparison

12 Betting without specialization

13 Betting based on sentiment

14 Betting on taboo events

15 Betting the on the favorite team

16 Betting on non sporting events

17 Boredom betting

18 Mix betting with alcohol

19 Betting on burned games

20 Betting under time pressure

Conclusions

01 Betting with no value

Understanding the “value” concept is the essential aspect of sports betting success. The biggest and the most common mistake in sports betting is to take bets without value. Anyone who doesn’t realize this will never have success in the long run. Literally translated, “value” means “importance” or “benefit”. In sports betting, the value bets are those which have “monetary worth” and are valuable and useful. Value betting is the ability to find an advantage against a bookmaker buy setting up odds more accurately and exploit the opportunity when a selection probability of an occurring event is lower than it should be.

In this context, you should know that bookmakers do not offer fair odds because they introduce a “margin” into their betting odds offers. This margin (also called the bookmaker advantage) can be beaten in the long run only if you place bets with value. The value principle can be found in stock market trading too. You should always invest in stocks (buy) when the actual company market price course is undervalued. It is expected that the price will rise in the future and you can collect the difference as a profit. If the stock is overvalued, the price is already on high limit and then it has no value to invest (buy) in stocks because you will have no profit. If you want to succeed in sports betting, you need to find out the undervalued clubs and pick the events where their odds “course” are set up too high.

HINT
Is relatively easy to explain and understand the “value” principles, but finding value bets is not an easy task to develop and for many bettors can be a difficult concept to adapt to. That is why my sportsbook guide covers this topic in very detailed and deep explanations. In the theoretical section, you’ll learn how to recognize a valued sports bet and how to measure it. In the practical section, I will provide you with a computer tool which will help you to calculate the sports betting value.

If the concept of value seems to be too abstract for you, then let me give you some betting behaviors that I saw many times when unsuccessful bettors who place “bets without value”.

BETTING ON ODDS ONLY
Betting on odds is like icing on the cake when it comes to sports betting. If the odds are higher, then higher potential profit will be. Following this principle, many bettors are looking for bets with big odds in the hope of multiplying their stake as fast as possible, but there is a catch, though. On the one hand, there is an inverse relationship between betting odds offer and the calculated probability of the event (the higher odds offer means the lower probability of the event to occur), but on the other hand, searching only the isolated events with the high odds leaves betting ticket without the value feature. This behavior described above has been observed very frequently recently when it comes to finding a “doubling.” Odds of 2.00 or higher are sought here, as the profit doubles with these odds. In principle, there is no objection with such odds, but these bets should only be made only if they contain value too. Betting blind on higher odds without a value makes no sense.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Remember that value betting always starts from your own analysis of the game event, after you’re calculating your personal event odds of success. Only then you should compare your result with the bookmaker odds and check whether there is value or not (you have found value when the bookmaker odds is higher than your odds calculation). Value can be present for lower odds or for higher odds bets offer. Never make the mistake to check out the bookmaker’s odds first, because your odds analysis will be influenced.

BET ON STATISTICS ONLY
Bookmakers have nothing to give away, but simply want to make a profit. Bookmakers are trying to lure you and therefore to attract you into as many bets as possible. A usual solution is the statistics supplying. These statistics (tables, up-to-date form etc.) will be shown to you by many bookmakers right next to the betting odds offers and they are available free of charge. Why are the bookmakers doing this? Quite simply. Because those statistics have no added value at all for you at all. If Bayern Munich wins 90 percent of their home games, then the bookmaker knows that too and adjusts the betting odds accordingly. Do you really believe that the bookmaker would offer these statistics for being you in an advantage? No. The bookmaker does it much more skillfully. It gives you this additional information, weighs you in security and earning from the margin mentioned.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Don’t get me wrong. Statistics are important and also useful. But if you rely solely on standard statistics you will lose more money in the long term than you win. The secret lies in estimating probabilities better than the bookmaker. This works by evaluating statistics smarter, combining them with the right variables and weighting historical events correctly. Once again, the bookmaker has all the obvious information and it makes no difference. It’s about collecting more information, processing them better and have a reliable algorithm that can handle all of this. As mentioned, I will describe these aspects in detail in my guidebook and the algorithm is already integrated into the sports betting tool.

BET ON FAVORITES ONLY
Similar to bettors who are looking for high odds, there is also another kind of bettors who are betting on lower odds only. Low odds are offered for favorites and favorite teams logically win more often than they lose, right? Of course, FC Bayern has won more games than lost in recent years. The question is whether the mainly lower odds reflect the real probability and whether these odds have value.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
I know and I repeat: you should place bets only if they have value. Period. For example: place a home bet game of FC Bayern Munchen against SC Paderborn. Let’s suppose that the odd for a home win is 1.10. It is pretty sure that Bayern Munchen will win this kind of match in most cases. You have to win this kind of bet ten times to be able to compensate only one draw or loss of the Bavarians. So if Munchen only ends one game in a draw or loss from eleven games, you are just as far as you were before betting (of course if you always played the same bet). For each “no win” of the Bavarians, you have to win ten bets to compensate for the single loss. If Bayern Munchen failure twice to win in eleven games, you are already caught in the vicious circle. In other words: to be a profitable bettor with events of 1.10 odds, you have to win at least eleven bets on every lost bet ticket. Just take a look at how often favorite teams did not win and what were the odds for them. You will see that betting on low odds is not a strategy as long as the bet has no value.

BETTING ON LUCK ONLY
Luck bets are those bets whose outcome cannot really be analyzed and which are therefore based on pure luck. Frequently offered luck bets are for example “Who will start the match?’ or “Who gets the first throw-in?”. For the bookmaker, these bets are money-making, as they have odds of less than 2.00 and thus the bookmaker has the margin advantage on its side. Unfortunately, a lot of bettors take this kind of bets, because they love the thrill and the bets are quickly over. However, a successful betting strategy goes differently.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Stay away from such lucky bets! You should keep in mind that such bets never have value, since their probability of occurrence is usually 50/50, but the odds offered are far below 2.00 (which would correspond to fair odds) and thus, in the long run, you will only give the profits to the bookmaker.

CONCLUSION
I hope you have understood why the value is so important and where the value is used in daily practice. Value is and will remain the most important key in the sports betting strategy. The biggest challenge remains in estimating probabilities as accurately as possible. If you do this better than the bookmaker and also if you understand when the bookmaker does change its odds, it’s not an impossible task as it might seem. In addition, there are a few tricks and tools that will help you. So, there are a lot of ways to get the advantage on your own and beat the bookmaker.

02 Betting without knowledge of mathematics

Mathematics is much more important in sports betting than you might think. It’s clear to most people how to calculate the profit in sports betting, all they need to know is the basic arithmetic. How to calculate the sporting odds events are creating troubles for most bettors. When it comes to basic knowledge of probability theory, most people wonder what it has to do with sports betting? Unfortunately, knowing a lot about sports is only the first half of the battle in sports betting. It is nothing but the truth, although it may sound a bit strange at first glance. Basically, this is also logical, as it would mean that every professional football player would automatically be a professional bettor, but we all know that is not true.

Mathematics is present in many areas of sports betting. Understanding betting odds, probabilities, margins, value, statistical analysis and also the calculation of the ideal bet are few examples of why mathematics is really needed in practice. Those who ignore these are making big mistakes.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Mathematicians will confirm that everything in the world can be mathematically calculated: from love to the outcome of the sporting competition. Sounds weird, but in essence, they are telling the truth. Even there is no formula or soft program in the world which can predict a 100% result, the probability is the central starting point to optimize your chances of success. And this is exactly where mathematics comes in, by adjusting the assessment of upcoming sports events ignoring the emotional factors and calculate prognosis with a purely rational treatment. Mathematics will not say that Bayern Munich will certainly win the next game, but they will say something like this: “Bayern Munich will win the next game with an 88% probability”. And this is an excellent way to work with your betting strategy.

Before you’re placing your next bet, you should handle first the sports betting theory in detail. Every sports bettor should know exactly what the betting odds means, how to convert the betting odds into a percentage probability, and why these are important at all. I’m not talking about the complex formulas or studying mathematics, but about the basics without you can never be a successful bettor in sports in the long run.

NOTE
The first part of this guide describes the complete sports betting theory including all the formulas you need for sports betting. In the second part of this guide, you’ll find a computer tool where all these formulas are incorporated. That’s it, it doesn’t get any easier than that.

03 Betting with bad reputation sportsbook

The sportsbook plays a central role in sports betting because it is both the betting partner and the betting opponent as well. It is the betting partner because it accepts your bets and without a bookie, a bet ticket would not even exist. The sportsbook is your opponent too because your loss is at the same time its profit and vice versa. For this reason, the sportsbook tries to trick you, attract you and manipulate you. There’s a lot to be said for such an attitude between the bookie and the bettors. Below you will find the mistakes made by all those bettors who do not deal intensively with the sportsbooks and their business.

CHOOSING THE WRONG SPORTSBOOK
If you want to bet successfully, you need a good sportsbook. A good sportsbook has a wide range of bets, is easily reachable, has no problems with deposits and withdrawals and lets you win. Yes, you heard it right. Unfortunately, there are a number of sportsbooks who are reluctant to let their customers win. They offer very bad odds (high margin) and then limit you if you win too much money. This means that you can only bet very small amounts or maybe you cannot even bet anymore. With such sportsbooks, you can never win in the long run.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Don’t register with the first sportsbook, but look for a bookie that suits you. You can find out a good sportsbook based on different criteria to choose from: no limiting stake amounts; no closing accounts; no lowering odds for winners; no delaying and no refusing payouts; no poor customer service etc.

HAVING ONLY ONE BETTING ACCOUNT
As you may know, the sportsbooks are very different in terms of sports offers, services, payment methods, and odds. If you have only one betting account, you are at the mercy of a single bookie and you cannot compare instant odds. And this might be a decisive advantage for you over the sportsbook. Even the best sportsbook will never be able to offer the best odds on all sporting bet events. So if you’re only registered with a unique sportsbook, you’re giving away cash in many cases.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
If you want to bet successfully, you must have more than one betting account. Compare the offers of different sportsbooks and open at least four betting accounts with the most suitable sportsbooks. For this, you can use this link on and directly secure yourself a welcome bonus.

NOT TAKING BONUSES
Many sportsbooks are offering bonus programs that are worth taking a closer look at. The best known and most lucrative bonus is the “Welcome Bonus”. When you open a new betting account and receive such a bonus, the sportsbook usually doubles your first deposit up to a certain amount. So if you open three betting accounts and deposit 100 EUR into each account, you’ll have 600 EUR to bet on right away, although only 300 EUR came out of your own pocket. So it would be a mistake to ignore such bonuses because you get money as a gift.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Taking a bonus with you is definitely recommended, because when you will ever get money? So don’t be afraid to accept these bonuses, but always inform yourself about the bonus terms and conditions. Because these bonuses are often so-called “hooks”. In the bonus terms (sometimes referred to as” terms and conditions”) you will find out when you can withdraw the “given” money. It is understandable that this does not work immediately, but it is sometimes made excessively difficult for you to have access to their bonus. The two most important conditions are how often you have to wager the deposit amount and above all, what minimum odds the bets have to have before a payout would be possible.

EXAMPLE
If it says that you must to wager your deposit and your bonus amount three times first, this means that if you have deposited EUR 100 and been gifted EUR 100 by the sportsbook, then you have EUR 200 in your betting account. This amount multiplied by three makes 600 EUR. You must, therefore, place bets worth of 600 EUR to be able to withdraw the bonus. So it could be six bets with 100 EUR bet or three bets with 200 EUR bet and so on. It doesn’t matter if your bets win or loses. The main thing is that you have to bet 600 EUR before you can withdraw the remaining amount. A minimum odds means that you also have to place these bets at a certain odds. For example, if the minimum odds is 1.5, then you only can place bets above this limit for counting the rollover of 600 EUR. If you place a bet with a lower odds, this bet will count as normal, but will not bring you closer to the target amount of 600 EUR rollover.

As you can see, sometimes it’s not so easy to accomplish the bonus conditions. Don’t worry if you don’t manage to unlock the bonus cash, because you were given the money that you would never have had otherwise and so you did not risk anything. It’s only a risk for you if you place bets at odds that you wouldn’t actually normally play and then the sportsbook attracts you into a trap here.

NOT HAVING AN ACCOUNT ON THE BETTING EXCHANGE
Many bettors do not know the difference between sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Betting exchanges have a number of advantages over sportsbooks and therefore bettors should deal with both betting providers. In a few words, you bet on sportsbooks’ website against the sportsbook itself and you bet on the exchanges’ website against other bettors. The betting exchange is just the mediator and finds a betting opponent for you. Betting exchanges are therefore not taking profits by your loss, but by a commission, they withhold from the winner’s bets. This means that betting exchanges could offer significantly better odds. In addition, at a betting exchange, you can bet on or against an event, which brings you into a very interesting area of trading. If you do not have a betting exchange account, you will miss out on these advantages and opportunities.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
I recommend that you have at least one betting exchange in your sportsbook portfolio. The best betting exchanges are Betfair, Betdaq and Matchbook. However, not all of them are currently approved in Germany (or in your country), but this can change every day. You can find out their current status from their websites, while you are registering your account and specifying your home country.

04 Betting without money management

Money management (also called bankroll management) is an indispensable part of any betting strategy. It helps you to compensate for losses and steadily increase profits. If you bet without money management, you risk the following betting mistakes:

UNDISCIPLINED BETS
How do you choose your staking bets? Are you deciding stakes from instinct or do you have a plan? It’s no big secret that a bet ticket can be winner, loser or refunded. It is even possible to win more bets than lose and still be with negative profit. It’s a fatal strategy if you win a series of bet tickets on a raw and then bet all profit gained in a single bet. This happens when you don’t have a betting plan and you’re deciding your stakes fuelled by greediness.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
You should bet only with a strict money management strategy! The money management takes care of managing your finances, more precisely your stakes and betting limits. Just as important as maximizing profits is keeping your losses under control and minimizing them. If you are not confident in a bet, then you would logically bet a very little stake or even better to not play the bet at all. You have to calculate your stake in a way that you can compensate for the possible loss and still have enough budget for the other bets. Good money management will not only protect you from a single loss but even will protect you for the losses of several lost bets in a row, so you cannot be bankrupt if you follow the right betting plan.

TOO HIGH STAKES
A very common mistake in sports betting is playing too high a stakes. While 1% to 5% from your betting capital may sound ridiculously low at first, in most cases this is the maximum stake amount recommended to bet. Believe me, even if you’ll constantly finding value bets, the random fluctuations can be brutal. It will happen every now and then to lose a number of bets in a raw. Nobody can prevent this, but betting at lower stakes could keep you away from the bankruptcy.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
As I told you before, the slogan is the same: you should never bet without a money management strategy. First of all, find out which types of money management exist and then choose your own variant to follow.

BETTING ALL IN
The biggest mistake in betting without a good money management strategy is the “all in” stake betting. This is a type of bet when the punters place bet tickets with the highest possible stake (all the money available in the betting account). This strategy can work once, but sooner or later it always ends in bankruptcy. “All in” term is particularly well-known with poker players, but it also appears more and more frequently in sports betting. Many bettors are trying to recover few losses by setting high stakes to refill initial capital again as quickly as possible, but almost will backfires due to a lack of analysis of the betting event.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
I’m sure you can guess the answer already. Place bets only with money management! Proper money management will prevent you from using all your available capital on a single bet. There is no money management in the world which includes the “all in” betting strategy!

NOTE
There is no “best money management”, but rather different types of money management which are recommended depending on the chosen strategy. You can read in details about some different types of money management. I will also introduce to you four different systems which have been integrated with the most suitable money management. You can benefit from my experience and simply replay my to systems if you like it.

05 Not withdrawing profits

The payout of your winnings is all that matters. As long as your winnings are only shown in your betting account, they remain purely virtual and only theoretical. You can not buy anything from your account yet. Furthermore, high amounts available in your betting account can tempt you to place too risky or too many bets. There are many bettors which are very happy having a big profit in their betting account but just did not manage to withdraw it and thus they become very angry.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Again, good money management is the solution. It is important that your money management should contain a plausible profit target for withdrawing. So, you have to define the profit amount when you make a withdraw. An ideal strategy is to stop betting after you reach and withdraw your monthly goal profit. In this guide, a sports betting tool is included, and from now on you’ll have a perfect overview of your current target goal profit evolution.

06 Betting on impulse

Even if you’re using the money management properly, there still remains the psychological impulse of betting again quickly if the last bet is lost. It’s the same feeling you have after winning a bet, when you may feel invincible. In both cases, you want to play the next bet quickly, without having to worry about the in-depth analysis of the next bet. Very often this phenomenon can be observed in live betting when you wish to immediately recoup the money lost in the last bet.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
The basic tip to avoid betting on impulse is to keep a cool head and rely on your money management. In concrete terms, this means to take a break and imposing yourself a betting break of 30 minutes (more or less depending on your needs) after every bet. For live betting you could also log out of your betting account after every bet, making it even harder for you to bet a new bet immediately. Also, the complete shutdown of the PC or smartphone after placing a bet is reasonable, even it is not practical.

NOTE
The above lack of control belongs to the field of mental discipline. It is just as important to have a solid discipline to obey your requirements as it is to set up good money management in the first place. Unfortunately, a lot of bettors fails here as well. This guide gives you many practical tips to become a disciplined sports punter.

07 Not using a bookkeeping

There is no professional bettor who places bets without keeping a record of money spent and profit gained. It may sound boring but it’s “a must do” in your betting activity. This bookkeeping record with bets you have played, event date, stake amount, odds, profit and total bank account could easily be combined with your personal money management. Here is the good news: a betting tool is included in this guide provides a coordinated betting diary for each system, and you can enter your bets in this betting diary, which can be used to calculate bets as well as to provide detailed evaluations. All these calculations are done automatically, so you can concentrate on betting, and you have all this in one tool, so you do not need a different one.

What happens if you ignore using a betting bookkeeping?

MISSING THE RECORDS OF PROFITS AND LOSSES
If I asked you exactly how much money you won or lost last year with sports betting, could you answer this question easily and quickly? Almost all bettors claim to be successful. As we know, this is true only very few of them. The majority of bettors have a negative balance, but they deliberately ignore it. After all, it is much nicer to remember the bets you have won. Of course, every punter will face both losing and winning streaks. However, the profit results of the overall balance sheet are the decisive one. To be more precise: did you have more money from withdrawing than you depositing? Many bettors find this question difficult or even impossible to answer. The reason for this is that you forgot the overview of profits, losses, returns etc. after a few bets. In addition, many punters don’t record their deposits and withdrawals and are therefore blindfolded by their personal finances.

In addition, many bettors have several betting accounts with different bookmakers. As we have learned, this is completely legitimate and recommended, but it makes the records even more difficult. Without making detailed bookkeeping, you may be facing to have considerable losses without knowing it. And this is a big mistake!

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Every company keeps a financial book of records and the reason is quite simple. If you keep a clean record, you can provide and quickly information about your incomes and expenses at any time and decide if further investments will make sense or not. It is wise to create a bookkeeping system for yourself. The first step would be to create a balance sheet, from which you can clearly see when you have deposited funds into your betting accounts. Also, your total profit (or loss) can be seen at a glance. This balance sheet should also calculate your betting return, meaning what percentage from your funding capital you have increased. This number gives you a clue if sports betting is a proper business for you, or you would rather put it personal money into a saving account.

NOT HAVING A CLEAR BETTING STRATEGY
Which sports are best for you to bet on? What type of bets are you familiar with? Moneyline with 2-way bets or 3-way bets … football or tennis events … pre-game or in running sports betting events? Do you even make a clear distinction between different betting strategies? Unfortunately, only very few people really could evaluate these characteristics in a good manner. If you don’t know for sure which kind of bets you’re good at and which kind of bets you shouldn’t play, then you cannot optimize your betting behavior. This is a betting mistake that makes the difference between amateur and professional bettors.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
In addition to the fiscal balance, you should make an analysis of all your bets called the betting diary. In this overview, you should enter each bet and note which one was won or lost. A lot of interpretation can then be made from these betting data. Insert all your bets in a betting diary and note the most important features, such as balance, bet type, stake, odds, win/loss, and other data. The more data you write down for each bet, the more evaluation options you’ll have afterward. If you are thinking of a boring duty activity with this bookkeeping, then let me tell you the following: every bet, whether is won or lost, has a clue and could provide you future hints. This feedback is important in order to understand if your betting analysis is good or your betting strategy needs improvement. Nobody can keep in mind by heart all past bets with all details, so bookkeeping is a must for adjusting the betting strategy.

NOTE
Again, I would like to mention that I’ve developed a sports betting tool exactly for this purpose and it is available in the guide. This tool contains a balance sheet, betting diaries for all recommended systems, integrated money management and of course a clear evaluation of all bets played. Since the tool works similar to a data processing program, all these data are updated completely automatically. So you don’t have to do worry about, you have to you enter your bets and everything else happens by itself. The tool is your perfect assistant and contains everything that you need for your daily betting.

08 Ignoring betting opportunities

There are bettors which always place the same type of bets. Usually, the classic 3-way bet is a very common bet in football (home win, draw or away win). So far so good. Basically, there is nothing wrong with placing 3-way bets. However, many bettors do not even know the variety of other betting types offer especially from the online area. There are football games with more than a hundred different type of bets, so there will be a lot of betting possibilities and anyone who closes eyes to these opportunities is making a big mistake.

In the last few years, many things have been changed due to the hard competition between betting providers. The sports betting service has expanded and become much more complex, but not necessarily more complicated. Anyone who has ever dealt with the different types of betting, betting forms and betting types will quickly find out what betting opportunities are available beside the well known 3-way bet style.

You can get a comprehensive overview of betting types possibilities here.

09 Betting multiple bets too often

Multiple bets are very tempting due to the equivalent multiplied odds. It is not uncommon to find betting tickets with ten or more combined bets. The hope is always a short-term success with high profits. However, with every added bet on the combined ticket, the risk of losing also increases, because only a single lost bet is enough to burst the entire betting slip. How often did you hear from friends about one bet that still had to win? Yes, unfortunately, this happens very often and the internet has a lot of examples like this one. Usually, those punters blamed the team who does not win the event and almost never saw who actually made the mistake.

Let’s take a look with mathematical probability consideration only. The chance of a perfect fair 3-way bet odds (home, draw or away ) has a 33.3 % success rate. If we now combine two such bets with each other on a single bet, the probability of a win drops to about 11%, because there are already nine possible bets (three bets with three possible bets each). If we now even add a third bet, we already have a chance of winning less than 4%. You can imagine that this number will decrease with every added bet. For example: let’s suppose that a bookie has in their betting offer 10 football games with home odds = draw odds = away odds = 3.00 for each event. The implied probability of a combined ticket made from those 10 bet events (in 3-way style) is about 0.0017% (meaning that only 1 bet ticket is won from 59049 possibilities ).

Of course, this is a purely mathematical calculation, but if we made an accumulator ticket with three big favorites teams the implied probability should be significantly higher. It is important to have a basic understanding of mathematical probability theory.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Stay away from multiple bets! I recommend betting exclusively single bets. In very rare occasions you could bet accumulators only if you find more bets which correspond to your betting strategy. However, you should never combine more than three bets on a single ticket. Don’t let the bookmakers influence you here either. They often tell you about successful multiple bet tickets, where an unknown person won’t five-digit amounts or more with just one coin, but they never tell you how many betting tickets were lost. Be careful, it is only advertising!

You can learn the difference between single bets, multi-bets (accumulators) and system bets here. I’ve put together a number of successful sports betting strategies, so if you are interested in some concrete betting strategy, then you can take a look here.

10 Doubling bet strategy

One common practice when playing at roulette or sports betting is the so-called “doubling strategy”, also known as “Martingale”. It always works according to the same principle: you place your bet on red or black (roulette) or a minimum of 2 odds (sports betting). If your bet is lost, the next step (bet) is doubling the initiate the stake. You will continue to do so until you win, and then you start all over again with the first bet, basically trying to compensate for losses directly by raising your stake. Unfortunately, this strategy will only work for a limited period of time and at some point, you are threatened with complete bankruptcy because of the exponential increase in your required stakes, as well as the maximum betting stake limits of the casinos or bookmakers. The possible scenarios in this strategy that will eventually occur are:

1. The stakes will be so high that you cannot double anymore because you do not have enough budget left. You are bankrupt.

2. You can not double the previous stake anymore because the bookmaker or the casino has set a maximum stake bet. Once this is reached, you cannot double any more and the strategy cannot be continued. Now you’re standing there with your losses. Depending on how high your initial stake was, you could reach that maximum limit after seven or eight consecutive bets. And believe me, it’s not unlikely to lose eight consecutive bets (keyword: random swings).

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Keep away from this strategy, because it is not a betting strategy and has nothing to do with value. Sooner or later you’ll go bankrupt with it completely. Even if you are successful in the beginning, the danger is very great that at some point you will lose so many bets in a row that you’ll end up in one of the scenarios described above. The probability of winning smaller amounts is good, but the risk of total loss is very high at all times and therefore I never apply this strategy. One thing is clear: If there are would be so easy with such tricks, everyone would do it and there would be no casinos and no bookies.

11 No odds comparison

If you’re registered to a single bookmaker, you’ll not be able to compare odds between bookies and you cannot take one of the simplest advantages over bookmakers. More specifically, you can compare the odds between different providers and you can only bet with “the single” bookmaker you are registered with. Many punters are not really aware of this disadvantage, but just imagine that you want to bet 100 EUR on a home win of the FC Barcelona. Let’s suppose that the A-Bookmaker offers you a 1.40 odd if Barcelona wins, and the B-Bookmaker offers you a 1.50 odd if Barcelona win. That means 10 EUR profit difference if Barcelona will win or 20% percent less profit for the A-Bookmaker. If you’re finding such bets on a daily basis, you could miss 3650 EUR each year profit, only because you’re missing the odds comparison. And trust me, sometimes the differences in odds are even bigger. Maybe your pre-game betting analysis of the event game will show that value only exists from a odds over 1.45. Then the bet with bookmaker A would have no value at all, but with bookmaker B you would bet. If you don’t compare odds and find the biggest odds possible, you may not even find value bets to bet on.

Very often, differences in odds can be found on the same bookie. Let’s suppose a football event between Team A vs. Team B, and you are willing to bet Team A to win the match. Assuming that the money line (1X2 type) odd offers for Team A is 1.875 and the Asian Handicap odd offer for (Team A -0.5) is 1.925. You should definitely bet with AH style, not with the money line 1X2 classical style because in this example both bets are equivalent. Those 0.050 odds difference could mean some hundreds of Euros or more missing profit in a full year.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
If you’re comparing odds for an event with different bookies, you will notice that the odds often differ significantly between different providers. These differences in odds are cash profits if your selection is a winner. After you have analyzed a sporting event, you should always compare the odds of the different bookmakers. You have to choose the bookmaker with the best value for your money, i.e. the bookmaker that offers the highest odds. Of course, you can’t check out all the bookies on every bet, but there are very helpful tools on the internet who did this for you. A list of pages where you can compare betting odds easily and clearly can be found on Google. The basic requirement is to have several betting accounts at different bookmakers and betting exchanges and picking the biggest odds possible.

12 Betting without specialization

As beautiful and exciting as the rowing competitions at the Olympic Games are, you should only bet on it only if you are really familiar with that kind of sports and with the athletes involved. Unfortunately, there are far too many kinds of bets for a wide variety of sports. You should be based only to the magic word which is “specialization” and those who do not aim for it will find value more difficult. There are two types of specialization:

HORIZONTAL SPECIALIZATION
The horizontal betting offer is very large today, which means that there is a very wide range of sports and types of bets that you can bet on. At first look, this is very nice. However, the wide range also may encourage to try betting everything. The betting mistake often happens in these cases, when bets are placed with poor research and have not been concluded retrospectively on closer inspection. Very often these mistakes can be observed in sports where you know the rules but you do not analyze in deep the teams, the players or the current form. In this kind of bets, the “pure luck” plays the central role, not your personal expertise as it should be.

VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION
Vertical betting specialization means the knowledge and the expertise within a single type of sports from different leagues or/and countries. Those who are not aware of these opportunities ignore the very large betting potential. The more information a bookmaker has about a specific league, teams and players, the easier it is to create a sharper odds offer. In the Bundesliga, Premier League or Primera Division, all relevant information is easily accessible. Daily newspapers, sports newspapers, internet portals, sports forums, statistics, historical results, interviews etc. can be easily accessed in all languages. So in the major leagues, there are hardly any variables unknown to the bookmaker. On the other hand, betting on smaller leagues (which basically already includes the second league in the big countries) is often a better betting choice, because of the odds mispricing due to lack of the bookmakers’ information.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
As already explained, the goal is to have information or a calculation advantage over the bookmaker. However, you usually only get this advantage if you’re specialized in a certain sports area very well and don’t randomly bet on everything that comes to your mind. Generally speaking, you should grow up your expert knowledge as much as you can. However, since you can only build up the knowledge over a longer period of time and you have to see many players, teams, and championships, I recommend to concentrate on one or two particular sports and make one or two leagues your specialty. In this area, you might have an advantage over the bookmaker because it has to offer odds for every game and every league. Otherwise, the customers jump off and bet with the competition. On the other hand, you can only bet on you in your specialty field.

13 Betting based on sentiment

Do you have a sports club that you just don’t like it? Do you often wish that this club loses the next game? Do you then probably bet on this event? This is a big betting mistake, because, with objective analysis, these bets are simply not taken very seriously into consideration. “The wishing bet” is here the thinking evaluation and not the reasoning of value betting analyst. Betting based on sentiment and passion is not a successful betting recipe in long run.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
If you are emotionally connected to a specific sports game, then keep your fingers away and do not bet at all. Of course, you can be emotionally involved in as many games as possible, and again do not bet at all on those events because this could reduce the number of opportunities to find value. Betting should be done with your head instead of your heart.

14 Betting on taboo events

There are many games, especially in football, which represent a possible trap for many punters because the match result cannot be analyzed as usual. Better said, an analysis can be done, but the game is very likely to take an unexpected course. If you bet on such games, you will have a nasty experience and you’ll end up with a big frustration. These events may include:

FRIENDLY MATCHES
Friendly matches are exhibition games as the name says so. Friendlies are not always about winning, but rather about presenting a team, reducing the non-playing times and above all, testing new players and tactical formations. In such games, the analysis often fails, simply because it’s not about winning at all, except for the coaches, who can test some players and try them. As a common rule, both teams do not compete here either, and very few players will have the willingness to win. In addition, a lot of changes, a lot of testing and one or two players from the first squad are playing mainly for the audience show. These events are difficult to predict.

CUP GAMES
Everybody knows the phrase “The cup has its own laws”. Each year there are big surprises when favorite teams failure with unexpected results. The level of performance in the league does not always indicate further performance in the cup game and I believe that a reliable criterion is being sought in vain. If you really want to bet on cup games, my recommendation is to bet only in-running, not pre-game.

DERBY EVENTS
Derbies are very similar to cup games and are too often unpredictable. The players are a little more motivated than usual, the stadiums are often sold out tickets, the atmosphere is heated up and all these are transferred to the players. The result often takes a crazy course of the game. This is beautiful for the spectators, but unfortunately, it is poison for sports betting.

FIRST ROUND EVENTS
The first matchday is often good for surprises. Many teams have bought a number of new players and they still need to grow together. In addition, many players may be the first serious game after long injury breaks or a busy European Championship or World Cup. The last matches were mostly only friendly matches and therefore the results for the analysis are to be treated with caution. In these situations, extreme caution in sports betting is required.

LAST ROUND EVENTS
For many teams, the last match day is either about nothing or everything. These are not good conditions to analyze a game properly and predict a result. Teams that are out of the game may be playing with the second squad and are giving to migrating players more rest time (or none at all). Teams that are still in the championship or playing against relegation may have a completely different tactic than usual and react constantly and respond more efficient against the competitor’s attacks. After all, we can say that the good performance from the entire season is not necessarily being reflected in the last round of the season.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Keep your fingers off from all the games mentioned above and do not bet on them. There are plenty of other betting opportunities.

15 Betting on the favorite team

All punters have a favorite sports team and there will be always a great temptation to take action in terms of betting competition. After all, it is expecting that you know more about your heart team than other teams. You might have some insider information as well. In these cases, your analysis is unlikely to be done objective and you may over-estimate or under-estimate the game performance because of your wishful thinking. All this happens unintentionally but in the end, the trouble could harm you again. Betting against your favorite team is also a very usual practice through punters. Do you really want your team to be defeated just to have a winning bet ticket? There are actually bettors who do this because they definitely have something to celebrate: either the winning their bet ticket or their favorite team, but this approach has nothing to do with professional sports betting.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Don’t place bets on your favorite team! Believe me, there are plenty of other games to bet on. The national and international associations do a great job to break up matchdays and establish kick-off times during a full day. This is done mainly for a better world betting marketing, but for you, it means that you have more games where you can bet on (even live). So don’t stop at games which are dangerous for you.

16 Betting on non-sporting events

It’s Tuesday, the Champions League has a break event game and there’s no football match soon. It is possible that your bookmaker will give you a little free credit to try out their online casino. Are you being manipulated? If you already have an online sport betting account, you may have faced with these offers from your bookmaker. First of all, the online casino is there and most people know what it is and are therefore may be tempted to put their money there once in a while. Of course, the bookmakers will help you with other offers to giving away bonuses through flashing banners. You should know that casino games like roulette and poker are the gambling world of their own. Anyone who claims to be successful in sports betting is by no means a good casino player. These games have their own rules and laws.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Focus on sports betting and keep your hands off everything else! It’s a big mistake to use your sports betting balance in the casino. Let me also say that the casino advantage, the profit margin of the casino cannot be beaten and value simply does not exist here. For you, this means that you have a significantly better chance to have profit with sports betting instead with casino games. If you think that you are still in danger, you can opt-out of bookmakers for certain games and offers.

17 Boredom betting

Boredom betting occurs in two forms. The first situation arises every year during long periods without competitions, such as winter or summer break in football. This break is even bigger in years without the European Championship or World Cup. In those big pauses, when are no game events and all known leagues have a break, you may focus on sports or games where you have no idea and your betting analysis is no effect. The second boredom situation occurs when “casual bettors” simply turn the television on and when they stumble over a sports broadcast, they place bets immediately. After all, it makes the event much more exciting. Again these types of bets are based on the chance of winning instead of a correct betting analysis. In both cases, there may be few lucky winning bets from time to time, but over a longer period of time this betting strategy will not going in profit and you will lose more than you win.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Some bettors tend to get used to making games artificially interesting by betting on them. The basic rule here is that you should not bet without a detailed analysis (without value). If you keep betting through this rule, errors cannot happen to you. In addition, you should use your boredom in another way than did before when you were betting. Of course, I’m not your life consultant, but especially in periods of time when no many game events are in the offer, you should find other suitable hobbies to follow. For example, do more sports for yourself and get your head free from betting, because sports betting will be back soon.

18 Mix betting with alcohol

You’re in a bar, drinking your third beer right now, and a soccer match is playing on the screen of the suspended TV. It overcomes you and you feel the impulse to bet. Under the influence of alcohol or other drugs, some people claim to get their maximum performance in creativity and performance. Forget these affirmations because there aren’t true. It is well known the fact that alcohol and other drugs are not beneficial for sports betting because they increase risk-taking and reduce the ability to think. Both are bad advisors when it comes to sports betting.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
No taking bets under the influence of alcohol! Of course, we can discuss whether a single beer is okay or not, but keep it with alcohol-free. I also like to drink a beer, but then I will place no bets. If you’re in danger here, just leave your smart cell phone at home or switch it off while you’re in the bar.

19 Betting on burned games

A “dead game” or “burned game” is any game where you either can’t find a matching bet with value or you have placed a bet but it gets lost (or is going to be lost). In the latest case your betting analysis has already proven wrong and with very high probability you will also misjudge the further course of the game. The game is, therefore “dead” and you should not bet on it anymore on it (especially live betting). It is important to understand that the mistake here was not in the first lost bet, because lost bets are quite normal and inevitable. The potential betting mistake is considered when another bet is made.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Stay away from dead or burned games and do not place bets anymore! Once a bet is going to be lost, that sports game event became forbidden for further bets.

20 Betting under time pressure

There are only ten minutes left until the whistle kick-off, but the day has been so full that it has not been possible to analyze the game properly yet. But you definitely want to bet on the game and you squeeze the analysis, which usually takes much longer, into the remaining few minutes.

A similar phenomenon can be observed with live betting. You wanted to go to a party soon and actually you look at live games for at least the first half hour before you think you can predict the course of the rest of the game. Your girlfriend is ready earlier than expected and asks when you finally can go. And the bet is already placed, without having performed your other procedure. The bet loses and the bad mood leaves you might be looking at your girlfriend. The evening is over.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Do not place bets under time pressure! You’ll have less time to analyze, make mistakes in your calculations, and possibly place bets without value. Block your time for sports betting and don’t let anyone bother you during this period of time.

Conclusions

If you made some betting mistakes (described above) through your personal betting behavior, then you should read the text again and write out the key points. Afterward, you should consider the key points with each bet. As I mentioned, this has a lot to do with your personal discipline. Change your bad habits now and take your betting chance! If the listed mistakes have helped you and you’re now looking for a concrete step-by-step guide to be successful in sports betting, then my sports betting guide should be just right for you. You will find much more information on this guide and you can see some references. The content of the guide is based on more than 150 pages on the following formula, which is explained to you in theory and practice in detail and which you can then use the sports betting tool directly put into action. The 150 pages guide is based on the tested success formula, which is explained to you in detail in theory and practice and which you can then put into action as a guidance sports betting tool.

REFERENCE
https://www.koenig-der-sportwetten.de/

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